As we look ahead to 2026, a research partner recently published a report that does an excellent job framing what we may experience next—especially when viewed through the lens of historical presidential cycles.
While every economic cycle has unique variables, history provides useful context for planning. When paired with current fiscal and monetary policy, it helps explain both recent market performance and what may lie ahead.
The Policy Backdrop Heading Into 2026
When Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill, income taxes were not reduced to offset the economic impact of tariffs. As a result, a meaningful amount of stimulus is expected to
flow into the economy in early 2026, including:
- Approximately $150 billion in tax refunds
- Roughly $200 billion in business tax cuts
- Federal Reserve interest rate reductions
- Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion
In addition, the Federal Reserve is proposing to loosen certain bank capital regulations. If implemented, this could unlock an estimated $150–$200 billion of bank capital, much of which could flow into mortgages and the bond market, placing downward pressure on interest rates.
Taken together, these factors point to a highly stimulative economic environment as we move further into 2026.
Real GDP Growth and the Presidential Cycle
Historically, real GDP growth has tended to peak during the second year of a presidential cycle. This reflects the delayed effect of fiscal and monetary policy as stimulus works its way into the real economy.
Economic activity often strengthens after policy measures are put in place, even if financial markets have already reacted well in advance.
Financial markets typically anticipate economic activity several calendar quarters ahead. This is why strong market performance often occurs before the real economy shows its full response.
As the chart above illustrates, the S&P 500 has historically produced
strong returns early in a presidential cycle, followed by more muted or slower performance in Year 2, particularly as investors begin to focus on upcoming midterm elections.
This helps explain why recent market performance is no surprise, and why expectations remain for momentum to continue into early 2026. However, once stimulus is firmly embedded and the real economy is clearly responding, markets often pause or consolidate rather than continue moving straight up.
What This Means for Planning
Importantly, this pattern does not signal economic weakness. In many cases, it reflects the opposite:
- A strengthening real economy
- Improving liquidity conditions
- Financial markets that have already priced in much of the good news
For homeowners, buyers, and investors, these environments often create strategic opportunities, particularly around interest rates, refinancing windows, and long-term real estate planning.
Final Thoughts
While no forecast is perfect, understanding how policy, markets, and economic cycles interact can help with smarter decision-making. As we head into 2026, the combination of stimulus, regulatory changes, and historical precedent suggests an environment that rewards planning, patience, and proactive strategy.
If you’d like to discuss how this outlook may impact your personal situation, real estate decisions, or client planning for 2026, I’m always happy to connect.
Wishing you continued success and good health in the year ahead.